Shown here is a model of price action in silver over the most recent several months. There are a ton of lines here and for our immediate purpose we can ignore nearly all of them. We are concerned here mainly with the obvious rising channel (in green) and in the current fall channel (dark red).
Click for larger image: http://nowthen.jonknight.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/silver-92819-fall-channel.png
Several years ago I developed the original concepts for Lines Of Force (LOF), a method of modeling post-peak price behaviour. The Fall Channel is an artifact identified by the LOF model and is amazing in its ability to indicate where price will be as price exits the channel.
According to this model, price will exit the fall channel October 3-4 at a level of 17.70 USD. Everywhere on this model where you see a circle is an Exit that proved true in the past. Right now, Fall Channel Exits have proven true in just over 99% of models where they’ve appeared.
Where price goes after that I can’t say with this model as it stands. It may rise or it may continue to fall, establishing a new fall channel. Right now it’s impossible to discern that from the model. But if I find anything interesting using LOF methods I will certainly try to pass it on. Feel free to follow along and chide me ridiculously if the method fails!
NEVER TRADE YOUR MONEY BASED ON MY WORK OR ANY WORK OTHER THAN YOUR OWN. MY WORK LOOKS AT PRICE AND PRICE ACTION OVER TIME AND IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
NO TECHNICAL INDICATORS. NO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
IT’S YOUR MONEY. PROTECT IT.