Category: LOF

As indicated in my previous post, Silver passed through the 17.70USD price point on October 3.

View larger image here.

Predicting precise future price points accurately should be the Holy Grail of trading or investing. Common knowledge says that it’s simply impossible to do.

There are so many variables to take into account, right? There must be some serious higher-level mathematics going on to even attempt it, right?

Modeling Fall Channels and finding their EXITS using the Lines Of Force method requires only human eyes and a human brain. There is no algorithm. There is no higher-level math. To one who has learned the method, it’s almost easy.

Throughout literally hundreds of models–individual charts on dozens of securities–the Fall Channel EXIT has indicated precise price points in time with better than 99% accuracy. I believe anyone can learn how to do this. Ask me how.

NEVER TRADE YOUR MONEY BASED ON MY WORK OR ANY WORK OTHER THAN YOUR OWN. MY WORK LOOKS AT PRICE AND PRICE ACTION OVER TIME AND IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
NO TECHNICAL INDICATORS. NO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
IT’S YOUR MONEY. PROTECT IT.

Shown here is a model of price action in silver over the most recent several months. There are a ton of lines here and for our immediate purpose we can ignore nearly all of them. We are concerned here mainly with the obvious rising channel (in green) and in the current fall channel (dark red).

Click for larger image: http://nowthen.jonknight.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/silver-92819-fall-channel.png

Several years ago I developed the original concepts for Lines Of Force (LOF), a method of modeling post-peak price behaviour. The Fall Channel is an artifact identified by the LOF model and is amazing in its ability to indicate where price will be as price exits the channel.

According to this model, price will exit the fall channel October 3-4 at a level of 17.70 USD. Everywhere on this model where you see a circle is an Exit that proved true in the past. Right now, Fall Channel Exits have proven true in just over 99% of models where they’ve appeared.

Where price goes after that I can’t say with this model as it stands. It may rise or it may continue to fall, establishing a new fall channel. Right now it’s impossible to discern that from the model. But if I find anything interesting using LOF methods I will certainly try to pass it on. Feel free to follow along and chide me ridiculously if the method fails!

NEVER TRADE YOUR MONEY BASED ON MY WORK OR ANY WORK OTHER THAN YOUR OWN. MY WORK LOOKS AT PRICE AND PRICE ACTION OVER TIME AND IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
NO TECHNICAL INDICATORS. NO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
IT’S YOUR MONEY. PROTECT IT.

I lost my entire savings back in the 1980s when silver dropped from a very low price to an absurdly low price. I had bought paper silver. It became worthless. I was lucky that was as bad as it got, and it taught me a great lesson.

If it ain’t in your possession, it ain’t your possession.

Fast-forward several decades and here I sit, staring at the wonder that is my Lines Of Force theory of modeling over time. Even though I am the guy who discovered this mess, it consistently surprises me.

Look at this model of Silver/USD:

See all those circles? Every one of them predicted where price would be, sometimes months in advance.

I know, I know. This has to be fluke or else I am drawing a bunch of lines after the fact and trying to fool you. Right?

I’ve been fine-tuning this method of modeling since 2014. In more than 99% of the hundreds of models I’ve drawn, this works exactly as shown here. The trick is to ignore the price and focus on the forces moving the price. I’m slowly working on an updated version of my ebook, but until then the original is HERE if you’d like to investigate deeper. I specifically recommend the information on Fall Channels found both in the book and in other articles on the website.

And that is all good… I’d be amenable to showing any and all of you how to do this yourselves. But that’s not why I am coming out of my hidey-hole to post this. There is something in the model that perplexes me.

In the lower right corner an EXIT has appeared below the $13 level in early August. Everything in me says that this must be a fluke, one of the 1% of model Fall Channels that are in error.

Yet it is there. It worries me. Enough that I postponed a large purchase of silver in late May and bought instead only 11 ounces.

I’d love to hear some opinions on this. Do you think silver/USD can drop to that level?